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How many housing units exactly are coming to Stafford County (part 1)?

Last week, BTW did an analysis of the above map, which shows how many active housing developments there are in Stafford County, to show how the coming housing units will affect the CFHS district in the years to come. Find that post HERE. Just as a reminder, the very small print on the spreadsheet shows the various neighborhoods that are in the process of building out and how many units will be built. If you would like to download the map, find the link HERE.

But this map shows us a lot more than just how many homes will be built in the CFHS district, it shows us how many homes are coming to the entire county. The information above only reflects approved and active developments before February 9th but 1 development was just approved by the BoS; a development at Quantico Village for 86 townhomes.

I have done the math on the spreadsheet above and the total units, already approved to come to Stafford county is.....8199 (total of the "To Be Built" column above.). Add to that the newly approved development mentioned above and you get a total of 8285 housing units to be built in Stafford. That's a lot, even in a county like Stafford that is 277 square miles. But if we slowed down our growth, we might be able to absorb it, right? Except that's not going to happen, at least not according to the BoS' plans for the future. Check out the graph below:

This graph comes from a BoS document presented in February. To find the full document, click the link HERE.

On the left, in red, the chart shows all of the residential permits that were approved from 1992-2016. The total comes to 27342. There is a rather drastic dip starting around 2007 and not really ending until last year. This period marks the bursting of the housing bubble just as Obama took office. During this time, a lot of developers saw their cash reserves dry up and put a hold on further development. We have finally recovered from the bust and we can now assume that the growth train will be barreling ahead in the next few years, as the chart on the left in blue shows, with over 21,250 projected new permits issues over the next 20 years.

Granted, there are a lot of numbers here but the short answer to the question posed in the title is A LOT. In part two of this article, BTW breaks the numbers down to try to get a more specific grasp on exactly how much growth we are in for.